The following is a translation of an enciphered telegram from the British ambassador in Tokyo to the British Foreign Office, intercepted by British spy John Cairncross (known here as Soviet agent “List”), that a recent telegram from London inexplicably indicated that the possibility of a Japanese attack on the Soviet Union was on the rise. The ambassador lays out his argument that, on the contrary, there is every reason to believe Japan’s attention is more closely focused on the ongoing negotiations with the US than on Russia. He nevertheless acknowledges that his reasoned assumption, based on local information, might be off the mark, and requests that London forward to him any information that contradicts his opinion. The intercepted telegram is forwarded to the Kremlin by VADIM (Soviet London resident Anatoly Gorsky).
TOP SECRET
CIPHER TELEGRAM No. 7739
From LONDON
Received 5 November 1941 at 0010 Decoded 6 November 1941 at 1320
Materials from “List”.
I am transmitting the contents of telegram No. 2142 from the British embassy in Tokyo, dated 28 October, to the British Foreign Office:
“In response to your telegram 5757 to Washington:
“1) I do not understand the nature of those who raise the possibilities of which you refer to in the first sentence. As far as I can tell here, since August, the number of indications that can point to the possibility of Japanese preparations to attack Russia has somewhat decreased. This opinion is based on reports from our envoys in Manchuria, based on the clear intention of the Japanese government to continue negotiations with the USA on resolving their main difficulties, particularly in the economic sector, and based on an examination of the general direction of Japanese public opinion, at least as far as can be expressed in the media, as well as based on conversations with fairly well-informed Japanese individuals. The tax laws submitted for consideration for the upcoming special session of the Diet do not provide justification to presume that they intend to take on some serious commitments in the near future. The military attaché agrees with me in this regard. A further increase in pressure, as envisaged in the second part of my telegram No. 2083, can now be considered unnecessary, if it is true that the US government has decided to no longer send ships with supplies to Vladivostok.
“2) The above opinion, naturally, will lose its significance if the Red Army suffers a complete collapse in the west or their forces in the east become seriously weakened. These views only provide this assessment of the situation as it appears to us here. I would be grateful if you could inform me by telegraph on any information you have that refutes my perspective.”
3 November 1941 No. 1252 VADIM
Translation © 2025 by Michael Estes and TranslatingHistory.org
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