The following are translations of three separate Top Secret intelligence reports dispatched on 25 November 1941, based on covertly-acquired information from unidentified Soviet agents in Tokyo. The first spells out how events are expected to unfold in the event of a break in Japanese-American negotiations. The second lists the ultimatums that Japan intends to present to the USSR. The third establishes that, with the formation of the new Japanese cabinet, German influence on the Japanese government is no longer as strong as it once was.
TOP SECRET
REPORT
Our resident in Tokyo reported the following based on covert intelligence information he had obtained:
If the Japanese-American negotiations break down, the following turn of events is expected:
a) Japan will present a note to Thailand with the demand that all conditions be met from the agreement previously concluded by Japan and Thailand. There is reason to presume that Thailand will not be able to meet these demands, which will result in Japan’s occupation of Thailand. Japan believes that, in response to said occupation, the US may break off diplomatic relations with Japan, but no military response from the US is anticipated.
b) Japan will demand that the Dutch [East] Indies fully restore trade relations. If this demand will not be satisfied, Japan will occupy the Dutch Indies. The Japanese feel that, if the Dutch destroy their oil industry during the occupation, it can be restored over the course of a year’s time. Should such an occupation take place, the US could effect a complete break of diplomatic ties with Japan and could possibly resort to direct military action, establishing a blockade in the Pacific Ocean and completely divesting Japan of its foreign trade.
25 November 1941
TOP SECRET
REPORT
Our resident in Tokyo reported the following based on covert intelligence information he had obtained:
The Japanese government is taking a “strict but reserved position” to the USSR and soon intends to present to the Soviet government the following ultimatums:
a) the demilitarization of the Manchurian-Soviet border;
b) the demilitarization of Vladivostok;
c) the satisfaction of the fifth article of the agreement made in 1925 between the USSR and Japan on the question of Japan’s use of Siberia’s natural resources;
d) guarantees that the Soviet government does not provide the USA with bases on the Far East coast of the USSR.
Japanese military maneuvers will soon begin in Manchuria which will be carried out, supposedly, to test Manchuria’s transport system and, first and foremost, its railways, should war break out with the USSR.
There are some who suggest that these maneuvers will be used by the Japanese to reinforce their demands on the USSR.
25 November 1941
TOP SECRET
REPORT
Our resident in Tokyo reported the following based on covert intelligence information he had obtained:
With the formation of the new cabinet, German influence on the Japanese government has weakened. This is confirmed partly by the fact that, in the second half of October, some 20 Germans were arrested in Tokyo and Yokohama on charges of affiliation with the fifth column.
The new cabinet is premised on the notion that Japan has no obligations to Germany per the Tripartite Pact, and will act on its own.
Because of this, the Germans are attempting to entice to their side Japan’s financial and industrial leaders who thus far have preferred to deal with America rather than Germany.
25 November 1941
Translation © 2025 by Michael Estes and TranslatingHistory.org
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