The following is a translation of a Top Secret cipher telegram date 17 June 1941 from Tokyo on the preconditions and probability of Japan’s entry into war with the USA. The source of the information was redacted during the declassification process, as was the pseudonym of the Soviet agent who filed the cable itself.
TOP SECRET
Removal of copies prohibited
CIPHER TELEGRAM No. 3462, 3464
Received 18 May 1941 at 07:10 Deciphered 19 May 1941 at 21:20
TO VIKTOR
Today at our latest meeting, “ ” provided material whose contents I will briefly report. Whether or not there will be a war with America is a question that has all of Japan on edge right now. It is said that at present there is no evidence of the level of danger of war that was evident this past February and March. My source overheard the following conversations on this issue:
1. During consultations with Hitler, Matsuoka stated that Japan will fight America only in the event that the latter declares war against Japan. Hitler was quite satisfied with this promise.
2. Does Japan want war with America? No, it wants to achieve its goals to create a new order in Asia through peaceful means, by taking advantage of the European war. Yet the government understands that this is all but impossible, given that a push to the south will absolutely lead to a confrontation with America and England.
3. In order to achieve the goals it has set for itself, Japan endeavors to:
a) normalize relations with the USSR,
b) create a new structure within the country,
c) prepare the army and the country militarily to at least the American level.
The Japanese feel the first and last points have already been met (in terms of military preparation of the army and navy, this was supposedly already accomplished in March). As far as the second point, nothing has been accomplished, as the government’s efforts are being rebuffed from financial and industrial capital.
4. The navy considers a clash with America inevitable, and the sooner the clash occurs, in their opinion, the better it will be for Japan, because over time, the balance between the fleets of the two countries will shift in favor of America.
5. There is information that frequently, from the Shibaura port (Tokyo Bay), transports depart at night carrying prisoners and jobless people to the south, to be used as the workforce to build airfields for naval aviation. It is believed that the construction work is being carried out on the Sin-Nan-Gunto [sic] islands located southwest of the Philippines (this is likely a reference to the Spratley Islands). It is believed that Japan will enter a war with America under the following circumstances:
a) America declares war on Germany
b) when decisive battles begin between Germany and England (the most likely timeframe for a southward expansion)
c) if America completely halts the export of materials to Japan, especially oil.
17 May 1941 No. 55.
Translation © 2025 by Michael Estes and TranslatingHistory.org
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